The Improbability Principle pdf

大卫·汉德 是一位著名的英国统计学家，1950 年 6 月 30 日出生于英国彼得伯勒。 他担任伦敦帝国理工学院统计学教授。 多年来，他已成为统计和数据分析领域的领军人物。

学术和专业成就：

• 伦敦帝国理工学院数学名誉教授和高级研究员。
• 曾任伦敦帝国理工学院统计学系主任。
• 英国科学院院士和精算师协会荣誉院士。
• 曾两次担任英国皇家统计学会主席。
• 担任英国统计局非执行董事八年。
• 欧洲统计咨询委员会成员。
• 担任国家统计学家专家用户咨询委员会和国家统计局应用数据伦理中心咨询委员会主席。
• 曾任帝国理工学院数据科学研究所研究委员会主席和英国行政数据研究网络主席。
• 担任元盛资本管理公司首席科学顾问八年。

作者身份：

大卫·汉德 是一位多产作家，拥有大量著名作品，包括：

• 超过 300 篇科学论文。
• 32本书涵盖数据分析和统计的各个方面。
• 他最近的著作包括《艾米的运气》、《暗数据》、《从 GDP 到可持续福祉》、《测量：非常简短的介绍》和《信息生成：数据如何统治我们的世界》。

奖项和认可：

• 2002年荣获英国皇家统计学会盖伊奖章。
• 2012年，他和他的研究小组因对信贷行业的贡献而获得了信贷催收和风险奖。
• 2016年荣获乔治博克斯奖章。
• 2019年荣获国际船级社联合会研究奖章。
• 2013年，他因其在研究和创新方面的杰出贡献而被任命为OBE（大英帝国勋章军官）。

大卫·汉德 卓越的职业生涯和贡献在统计学领域留下了不可磨灭的印记，使他成为数据分析和统计科学领域受人尊敬的权威和多产的作家。

The Improbability Principle pdf 大卫·汉德

Why Coincidences, Miracles, and Rare Events Happen Every Day

In his enlightening book, The Improbability Principle, distinguished statistician David J. Hand challenges the notion that extraordinarily rare events are truly exceptional. Instead, he compellingly argues that they are, in fact, quite common in our lives. Hand goes a step further, asserting that we should anticipate experiencing a "miracle" approximately once a month. However, this isn't a call to embrace superstitions, prophecies, or the supernatural. Hand's concept of a "miracle" is firmly rooted in rationality, devoid of mysticism.

Hand explains that there is no need for mystical or paranormal explanations when someone wins the lottery twice or survives being struck by lightning multiple times. All we require is a solid understanding of a set of powerful laws: the laws of inevitability, truly large numbers, selection, the probability lever, and near enough. These laws collectively form Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. They shed light on why we should not be astonished when we unexpectedly encounter a friend in a foreign country or stumble upon the same unfamiliar word repeatedly in a single day.

Throughout the book, Hand delves into more enigmatic questions, such as the commonalities between the Bible and Shakespeare, the predictability of financial crashes, and the peculiar phenomenon of lightning striking the same place (or person) twice. In the process, he imparts valuable insights into how we can apply the Improbability Principle in our own lives—whether it's for strategic advantage at a casino or discerning the genuine effectiveness of a medication.

The Improbability Principle offers an irresistible exploration of the laws governing seemingly "chance" occurrences, serving as a reliable guide to comprehending the intricacies of our world and universe. It challenges our perception of serendipity and luck, whether we're navigating the realms of business and finance or simply tossing a ball in the backyard, pondering where it will land. David J. Hand's book is an illuminating journey into the fascinating world of everyday miracles and improbable events.